P. Boyd and S. Doney, Modelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.287, issue.16, pp.53-54, 2002.
DOI : 10.1126/science.287.5454.793

K. Drinkwater, G. Beaugrand, M. Kaeriyama, S. Kim, G. Ottersen et al., On the processes linking climate to ecosystem changes, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.79, issue.3-4, pp.3-4, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.014

O. Hoegh-guldberg and J. Bruno, The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems, Science, vol.27, issue.10, pp.1523-1528, 2010.
DOI : 10.1080/01490410490465193

L. Bopp, L. Resplandy, J. Orr, S. Doney, J. Dunne et al., Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, vol.10, issue.10, pp.6225-6245, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013

H. Sverdrup, On Conditions for the Vernal Blooming of Phytoplankton, ICES Journal of Marine Science, vol.18, issue.3, pp.287-295, 1953.
DOI : 10.1093/icesjms/18.3.287

F. González-taboada and R. Anadón, Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends, Climatic Change, vol.451, issue.C5, pp.419-431, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/nature06590

R. Margalef, Life-forms of phytoplankton as survival alternatives in an unstable environment, Oceanol Acta, vol.1, issue.4, pp.493-509, 1978.

C. Bost, C. Cotté, P. Terray, C. Barbaud, C. Bon et al., Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography, Nature Communications, vol.2, p.8220, 2015.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO;2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01227390

L. Cianelli, K. Baily, and E. Olsen, Evolutionary and ecological constraints of fish spawning habitats, ICES Journal of Marine Science, vol.72, issue.2, pp.285-296, 2015.
DOI : 10.1093/icesjms/fsu145

D. Cairns, A. Gaston, F. Huettmann, and E. , Endothermy, ectothermy and the global structure of marine vertebrate communities, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.356, pp.239-250, 2008.
DOI : 10.3354/meps07286

D. Costa, J. Croxall, and C. Duck, Foraging Energetics of Antartic Fur Seals in Relation to Changes in Prey Availability, Ecology, vol.70, issue.3, pp.596-606, 1989.
DOI : 10.2307/1940211

D. Mccaiferty, I. Boyd, T. Walker, and R. Taylor, Foraging responses of Antarctic fur seals to changes in the marine environment, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.166, pp.285-299, 1998.
DOI : 10.3354/meps166285

M. Lea, C. Guinet, Y. Cherel, G. Duhamel, L. Dubroca et al., Impacts of climatic anomalies on provisioning strategies of a Southern Ocean predator, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.310, pp.77-94, 2006.
DOI : 10.3354/meps310077

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00184650

C. Guinet, L. Dubroca, M. Lea, S. Goldworthy, Y. Cherel et al., Spatial distribution of foraging in female Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella in relation to oceanographic variables: a scale-dependent approach using geographic information systems, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.219, pp.251-264, 2001.
DOI : 10.3354/meps219251

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00192444

C. Guinet, P. Jouventin, and J. Georges, Long term population changes of fur seals Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis on subantartic (Crozet) and subtropical (St Paul and Amsterdam) islands and their possible relationship to el niño Southern Oscillation, Antarct Sci, vol.6, pp.473-478, 1994.

J. Turner, N. Barrand, T. Bracegirdle, P. Convey, D. Hodgson et al., Antarctic climate change and the environment: an update, Polar Record, vol.56, issue.03, pp.1-23, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x

M. Biuw, L. Boehme, C. Guinet, M. Hindell, D. Costa et al., Variations in behavior and condition of a Southern Ocean top predator in relation to in situ oceanographic conditions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.21, issue.2, pp.13705-13710, 2007.
DOI : 10.1029/2005PA001154

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00265853

C. Bost, C. Cotté, F. Bailleul, Y. Cherel, J. Charrassin et al., The importance of oceanographic fronts to marine birds and mammals of the southern oceans, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.78, issue.3, pp.63-376, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.022

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00410175

J. Krebs, J. Erichsen, M. Webber, and E. Carnov, Optimal prey selection in the great tit (Parus major), Animal Behaviour, vol.25, pp.30-38, 1977.
DOI : 10.1016/0003-3472(77)90064-1

G. Orians, P. Need, D. By, G. Horn, R. Stairs et al., On the theory of central place forager, in Analysis Systems, pp.153-177, 1977.

I. Boyd and T. Mccann, Pre-natal investment in reproduction by female Antarctic fur seals, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, vol.64, issue.6, pp.377-385, 1989.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00293265

M. Lea, Y. Cherel, C. Guinet, and P. Nichols, Antarctic fur seals foraging in the Polar Frontal Zone: inter-annual shifts in diet as shown from fecal and fatty acid analyses, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.245, pp.281-297, 2002.
DOI : 10.3354/meps245281

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00192084

M. Lea and L. Dubroca, Fine-scale linkages between the diving behavior of Antarctic fur seals and oceanographic features in the southern Indian Ocean, J Mar Sci, vol.60, pp.990-1002, 2003.

M. Lea, M. Hindell, C. Guinet, and S. Goldsworthy, Variability in the diving activity of Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, at Iles Kerguelen, Polar Biol, vol.25, pp.269-279, 2002.

C. Guinet, M. Lea, and S. Goldsworthy, ) pups in relation to maternal characteristics at the Kergu??len Islands, Canadian Journal of Zoology, vol.78, issue.3, pp.476-483, 2000.
DOI : 10.1139/z99-231

J. Arnould, I. Boyd, and J. Speakman, The relationship between foraging behaviour and energy expenditure in Antarctic fur seals, Journal of Zoology, vol.33, issue.No. 171, pp.769-782, 1996.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-011-6527-3

Y. Cherel, C. Guinet, and Y. Tremblay, Fish prey of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella at Ile de Croy, Kerguelen, Polar Biology, vol.17, issue.1, pp.87-90, 1997.
DOI : 10.1007/s003000050109

F. Bonadonna, M. Lea, O. Dehorter, and C. Guinet, Foraging ground fidelity and route-choice tactics of a marine predator: the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.223, pp.287-297, 2001.
DOI : 10.3354/meps223287

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00192327

P. Coquillard and D. Hill, Modélisation et Simulation d'Ecosystèmes : des modèles déterministes aux simulations à événements discrets, p.273, 1997.

D. Grünbaum, Using Spatially Explicit Models to Characterize Foraging Performance in Heterogeneous Landscapes, The American Naturalist, vol.151, issue.2, pp.97-115, 1998.
DOI : 10.1086/286105

V. Grimm, Ten years of individual-based modelling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future?, Ecological Modelling, vol.115, issue.2-3, pp.2-3, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00188-4

I. Belkin and A. Gordon, Southern Ocean fronts from the Greenwich meridian to Tasmania, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.18, issue.26, pp.3675-3696, 1996.
DOI : 10.1029/JC092iC06p06462

M. Abbott, J. Richman, R. Letelier, and J. Barrett, The spring bloom in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone as observed from a mesoscale array of bio-optical sensors, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, vol.47, issue.15-16, pp.3285-3314, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0967-0645(00)00069-2

R. Gentry and G. Kooyman, Fur seals: maternal strategies on land and at sea, p.291, 1986.
DOI : 10.1515/9781400854691

J. Arnould, I. Boyd, and J. Speakman, Measuring the Body Composition of Antarctic Fur Seals (Arctocephalus gazella): Validation of Hydrogen Isotope Dilution, Physiological Zoology, vol.69, issue.1, pp.93-116, 1996.
DOI : 10.1086/physzool.69.1.30164202

W. Bonner, Lactation strategies in pinnipeds, problems for a marine mammal group

I. Boyd, Foraging and provisioning in Antarctic fur seals: interannual variability in time-energy budgets, Behavioral Ecology, vol.10, issue.2, pp.198-208, 1999.
DOI : 10.1093/beheco/10.2.198

S. Luque, E. Miller, J. Arnould, M. Chambellant, and C. Guinet, Ontogeny of body size and shape of Antarctic and subantarctic fur seals, Canadian Journal of Zoology, vol.85, issue.12, pp.1275-1285, 2007.
DOI : 10.1139/Z07-092

F. Bonadonna, M. Lea, and C. Guinet, Foraging routes of Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ) investigated by the concurrent use of satellite tracking and time-depth recorders, Polar Biology, vol.23, issue.3, pp.149-159, 2000.
DOI : 10.1007/s003000050021

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00193337

R. Development and C. Team, R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2008.

M. Schlather, A. Malinowski, M. Oesting, D. Boecker, K. Strokorb et al., RandomFields: Simulation and Analysis of Random Fields. R package version 3, 2016.

A. Winship, A. Hunter, D. Rosen, and A. Trites, Food consumption by seal lions: exixting data and techniques, pp.177-191, 2006.
DOI : 10.4027/slw.2006.13

J. Georges and C. Guinet, MATERNAL CARE IN THE SUBANTARCTIC FUR SEALS ON AMSTERDAM ISLAND, Ecology, vol.81, issue.2, pp.295-308, 2000.
DOI : 10.1093/beheco/5.1.28

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00193442

S. Goldsworthy, M. Lea, and C. Guinet, Comparison of mass-transfer and isotopic dilution methods for estimating milk intake in Antarctic fur seal pups, Polar Biology, vol.212, issue.12, pp.801-809, 2004.
DOI : 10.1086/physzool.51.2.30157864

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00186964

J. Nabe-nielsen, J. Tougaard, J. Teilmann, K. Lucke, and M. Forchhammer, How a simple adaptive foraging strategy can lead to emergent home ranges and increased food intake, Oikos, vol.54, issue.9, pp.1307-1316, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.11.017

D. Austin, W. Bowen, and J. Mcmillan, Intraspecific variation in movement patterns: modeling individual behaviour in a large marine predator, Oikos, vol.80, issue.1, pp.15-30, 2004.
DOI : 10.2989/025776195784156494

R. Sibly, V. Grimm, B. Martin, A. Johnston, K. Ku?akowska et al., Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, vol.72, issue.2, pp.151-161, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3800(94)90146-5

Y. Cherel and R. Groscolas, Relationships between nutrient storage and nutrient utilization in long-term fasting birds and mammals, Proc. 22nd Int, pp.17-34, 1999.

S. Benhamou, Spatial memory and searching efficiency, Animal Behaviour, vol.47, issue.6, pp.1423-1433, 1994.
DOI : 10.1006/anbe.1994.1189

B. Dumont and D. Hill, Multi-agent simulation of group foraging in sheep: effects of spatial memory, conspecific attraction and plot size, Ecological Modelling, vol.141, issue.1-3, pp.1-3, 2001.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00274-5

P. Coquillard, A. Muzy, and F. Diener, Optimal phenotypic plasticity in a stochastic environment minimises the cost/benefit ratio, Ecological Modelling, vol.242, pp.28-36, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.019

K. Reid and J. Forcada, : the interaction of density dependence and ecosystem variability, Canadian Journal of Zoology, vol.83, issue.4, pp.604-609, 2005.
DOI : 10.1139/z05-045

R. Langton, I. M. Davies, and B. Scott, A simulation model coupling the behaviour and energetics of a breeding central place forager to assess the impact of environmental changes, Ecological Modelling, vol.273, pp.31-43, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.030

I. Staniland, I. Boyd, and K. Reid, An energy???distance trade-off in a central-place forager, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella), Marine Biology, vol.25, issue.3, pp.233-241, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s00227-007-0698-9

J. Merkle, D. Fortin, and J. Morales, A memory-based foraging tactic reveals an adaptive mechanism for restricted space use, Ecology Letters, vol.32, issue.8, pp.924-931, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05626.x

N. Davies, J. Krebs, and S. West, An Introduction to Behavioural Ecology, p.506, 2012.

P. Nonacs, State dependent behavior and the Marginal Value Theorem, Behavioral Ecology, vol.12, issue.1, pp.71-83, 2001.
DOI : 10.1093/oxfordjournals.beheco.a000381

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=

G. Beauplet, C. Barbraud, W. Dabin, C. Kussener, and C. Guinet, Age-specific survival and reproductive performances in fur seals: evidence of senescence and individual quality, Oikos, vol.38, issue.2, pp.430-441, 2006.
DOI : 10.1093/icb/23.1.25

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00182614

G. Beauplet and C. Guinet, Phenotypic determinants of individual fitness in female fur seals: larger is better, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.81, issue.3, pp.1877-1883, 2007.
DOI : 10.2307/2683925

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00182376

G. Beauplet, L. Dubroca, C. Guinet, Y. Cherel, W. Dabin et al., Foraging ecology of subantarctic fur seals Arctocephalus tropicalis breeding on Amsterdam Island: seasonal changes in relation to maternal characteristics and pup growth, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.273, pp.211-225, 2004.
DOI : 10.3354/meps273211

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00186728

M. Authier, C. E. Guinet, and C. , Selection for increased body length in Subantarctic fur seals on Amsterdam Island, Journal of Evolutionary Biology, vol.9, issue.113, pp.607-616, 2010.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-294x.2000.00856.x

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00547696

J. Forcada and J. Hoffman, Climate change selects for heterozygosity in a declining fur seal population, Nature, vol.50, issue.7510, pp.462-13542, 2014.
DOI : 10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0217:ESAAEF]2.3.CO;2

F. Bailleul, S. Luque, L. Dubroca, J. Arnould, and C. Guinet, Differences in foraging strategy and maternal behaviour between two sympatric fur seal species at the Crozet Islands, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.293, pp.273-282, 2005.
DOI : 10.3354/meps293273

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00187298

G. Beauplet, C. Barbraud, M. Chambellant, and C. Guinet, Interannual variation in the post-weaning and juvenile survival of subantarctic fur seals: influence of pup sex, growth rate and oceanographic conditions, Journal of Animal Ecology, vol.13, issue.6, pp.1160-1172, 2005.
DOI : 10.1006/anbe.1998.0993

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00187329

P. Wilson and D. Osbourne, Compensatory growth fter undernutrition in mammals and birds. Biological reviews, 1960.

DOI : 10.1642/0004-8038(2004)121[1187:EOROGD]2.0.CO;2

F. Bailleul, M. Authier, S. Ducatez, F. Roquet, J. Charrassin et al., Looking at the unseen: combining animal bio-logging and stable isotopes to reveal a shift in the ecological niche of a deep diving predator, Ecography, vol.201, issue.4, pp.709-719, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s00300-004-0628-y

C. Guinet, J. Vacquié-garcia, B. Picard, G. Bessigneul, Y. Lebras et al., Southern elephant seal foraging success in relation to temperature and light conditions: insight into prey distribution, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.499, pp.285-301, 2014.
DOI : 10.3354/meps10660

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00998666

T. Jaud, A. Dragon, J. Vacquié-garcia, and C. Guinet, Relationship between Chlorophyll a Concentration, Light Attenuation and Diving Depth of the Southern Elephant Seal Mirounga leonina, PLoS ONE, vol.7, issue.10, p.47444, 2012.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0047444.t004

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00747506

K. Schmidt-nielsen, Scaling: why is animal body size so important?, p.256, 1984.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9781139167826

M. Mckinney, Trends in body size evolution, Evolutionary Trends, pp.75-78, 1990.

N. Perrin, Forum, Functional Ecology, vol.12, issue.3, pp.500-502, 1998.
DOI : 10.1086/285894

R. Peters, The Ecological Implications of Body Size, 1983.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511608551

K. Benoit-bird, B. Battaile, C. Nordstrom, and A. Trites, Foraging behavior of northern fur seals closely matches the hierarchical patch scales of prey, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.479, pp.283-302, 2013.
DOI : 10.3354/meps10209

P. Lehodey, R. Murtugudde, and I. Senina, Bridging the gap from ocean models to population dynamics of large marine predators: A model of mid-trophic functional groups, Progress in Oceanography, vol.84, issue.1-2, pp.69-84, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.09.008

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00459559

S. Text, Details about the linear relationship between distance to the resource and female body length

S. Figure, Comparison between real tracking and tested movements in the simulator

S. Dataset, Data used to calculate the drag force

S. Dataset, Probability matrices of returning to the island (Fig S1A)

S. Dataset, Energy spent used to calculate cost/benefit ratio

S. Dataset, Simulation results for distances ranging from 100 to 250 km

S. Dataset, Simulation results for distances ranging from 300 to 500 km

S. Dataset, Matrices used to build the figure 5